At the edge of war: Frontline ally support for the United States military¹

How does public messaging affect public support for, or opposition to, a U.S. military presence abroad? This study focuses on Poland as a frontline ally with an exceptionally high external security threat and a U.S. military presence. Using a pre-registered survey experiment, we explore how the U.S. is able to maintain strong and robust support for its military presence in Poland. We do so by analyzing how contextual prompts concerning external security threats, potential economic gains from increased U.S. basing, and the distance of a possible new military installation affect an individual’s cost-benefit analysis on the subject and determine mass attitudes toward a hypothetical new U.S. military base in Poland.