Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict

Kevin R. Roche, Michéle Müller-Itten, David N. Dralle, Diogo Bolster, Marc F. Müller

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

19 Scopus citations

Abstract

A growing empirical literature associates climate anomalies with increased risk of violent conflict. This association has been portrayed as a bellwether of future societal instability as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are predicted to increase. This paper investigates the theoretical foundation of this claim. A seminal microeconomic model of opportunity costs-a mechanism often thought to drive climate-conflict relationships- is extended by considering realistic changes in the distribution of climate-dependent agricultural income. Results advise caution in using empirical associations between short-run climate anomalies and conflicts to predict the effect of sustained shifts in climate regimes: Although war occurs in bad years, conflict may decrease if agents expect more frequent bad years. Theory suggests a nonmonotonic relation between climate variability and conflict that emerges as agents adapt and adjust their behavior to the new income distribution. We identify 3 measurable statistics of the income distribution that are each unambiguously associated with conflict likelihood. Jointly, these statistics offer a unique signature to distinguish opportunity costs from competing mechanisms that may relate climate anomalies to conflict.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1935-1940
Number of pages6
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume117
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - 28 Jan 2020

Keywords

  • Agriculture
  • Income shock
  • Microeconomic theory
  • Rainfall
  • Violence

EGS Disciplines

  • Civil and Environmental Engineering

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