TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate change threatens the future viability of translocated populations
AU - Bellis, Joe M.
AU - Maschinski, Joyce
AU - Bonnin, Noémie
AU - Bielby, Jon
AU - Dalrymple, Sarah E.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors. Diversity and Distributions published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
PY - 2024/2
Y1 - 2024/2
N2 - Aim: The dynamic nature of climate change diminishes the effectiveness of static approaches to nature conservation. Areas that were once suitable for species may no longer be suitable, and areas that are suitable now, may be unsuitable in the future. Despite increasing global awareness of the threats posed by climate change, it remains poorly accounted for in conservation programmes, such as translocation. In this study, we project changes in climate suitability for populations of ectothermic species that have been successfully established through translocation efforts. Location: Biogeographical realms: Australasia, Holarctic, Palearctic and Nearctic. Methods: We use species distribution models (SDMs) to project changes in macroclimatic suitability across 65 translocation recipient sites involving 38 ectothermic species. We consider optimistic (SSP126) and pessimistic (SSP370) scenarios of climate change for five general circulation models spanning three time horizons from 2021–2040 up to 2061–2080. Results: Our models predict that at least 74% of recipient sites are projected to decline in climate suitability, regardless of the SSP scenario or time horizon. While recipient site suitability, scaled from 0 to 1 (low–high), was typically very high (>0.75, 39% of sites) under baseline climate conditions (1960–2010), models project a marked shift towards low suitability climates (<0.25, 40% of sites) by the middle of the century (2041–2060) onwards under the more pessimistic scenario. Relative to species' ranges, recipient sites located closer to the equator are projected to experience the most significant declines in suitability. Main Conclusions: Our results call for greater consideration of spatiotemporal factors during the recipient site selection process, so that translocated populations are more strategically placed for long-term persistence under climate change.
AB - Aim: The dynamic nature of climate change diminishes the effectiveness of static approaches to nature conservation. Areas that were once suitable for species may no longer be suitable, and areas that are suitable now, may be unsuitable in the future. Despite increasing global awareness of the threats posed by climate change, it remains poorly accounted for in conservation programmes, such as translocation. In this study, we project changes in climate suitability for populations of ectothermic species that have been successfully established through translocation efforts. Location: Biogeographical realms: Australasia, Holarctic, Palearctic and Nearctic. Methods: We use species distribution models (SDMs) to project changes in macroclimatic suitability across 65 translocation recipient sites involving 38 ectothermic species. We consider optimistic (SSP126) and pessimistic (SSP370) scenarios of climate change for five general circulation models spanning three time horizons from 2021–2040 up to 2061–2080. Results: Our models predict that at least 74% of recipient sites are projected to decline in climate suitability, regardless of the SSP scenario or time horizon. While recipient site suitability, scaled from 0 to 1 (low–high), was typically very high (>0.75, 39% of sites) under baseline climate conditions (1960–2010), models project a marked shift towards low suitability climates (<0.25, 40% of sites) by the middle of the century (2041–2060) onwards under the more pessimistic scenario. Relative to species' ranges, recipient sites located closer to the equator are projected to experience the most significant declines in suitability. Main Conclusions: Our results call for greater consideration of spatiotemporal factors during the recipient site selection process, so that translocated populations are more strategically placed for long-term persistence under climate change.
KW - amphibians
KW - assisted colonisation
KW - climate change
KW - conservation translocation
KW - insects
KW - reintroduction
KW - reptiles
KW - species distribution models
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85178399853&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/ddi.13795
DO - 10.1111/ddi.13795
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85178399853
SN - 1366-9516
VL - 30
JO - Diversity and Distributions
JF - Diversity and Distributions
IS - 2
M1 - e13795
ER -