TY - JOUR
T1 - Increasing probability of mortality during Indian heat waves
AU - Mazdiyasni, Omid
AU - AghaKouchak, Amir
AU - Davis, Steven J.
AU - Madadgar, Shahrbanou
AU - Mehran, Ali
AU - Ragno, Elisa
AU - Sadegh, Mojtaba
AU - Sengupta, Ashmita
AU - Ghosh, Subimal
AU - Dhanya, C. T.
AU - Niknejad, Mohsen
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved.
PY - 2017/6
Y1 - 2017/6
N2 - Rising global temperatures are causing increases in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. We analyze changes in summer temperatures, the frequency, severity, and duration of heat waves, and heat-related mortality in India between 1960 and 2009 using data from the India Meteorological Department. Mean temperatures across India have risen by more than 0.5°C over this period, with statistically significant increases in heat waves. Using a novel probabilistic model, we further show that the increase in summer mean temperatures in India over this period corresponds to a 146% increase in the probability of heat-related mortality events of more than 100 people. In turn, our results suggest that future climate warming will lead to substantial increases in heat-related mortality, particularly in developing low-latitude countries, such as India, where heat waves will become more frequent and populations are especially vulnerable to these extreme temperatures. Our findings indicate that even moderate increases in mean temperatures may cause great increases in heat-related mortality and support the efforts of governments and international organizations to build up the resilience of these vulnerable regions to more severe heat waves.
AB - Rising global temperatures are causing increases in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. We analyze changes in summer temperatures, the frequency, severity, and duration of heat waves, and heat-related mortality in India between 1960 and 2009 using data from the India Meteorological Department. Mean temperatures across India have risen by more than 0.5°C over this period, with statistically significant increases in heat waves. Using a novel probabilistic model, we further show that the increase in summer mean temperatures in India over this period corresponds to a 146% increase in the probability of heat-related mortality events of more than 100 people. In turn, our results suggest that future climate warming will lead to substantial increases in heat-related mortality, particularly in developing low-latitude countries, such as India, where heat waves will become more frequent and populations are especially vulnerable to these extreme temperatures. Our findings indicate that even moderate increases in mean temperatures may cause great increases in heat-related mortality and support the efforts of governments and international organizations to build up the resilience of these vulnerable regions to more severe heat waves.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85027683201&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.1700066
DO - 10.1126/sciadv.1700066
M3 - Article
C2 - 28630921
AN - SCOPUS:85027683201
VL - 3
JO - Science Advances
JF - Science Advances
IS - 6
M1 - e1700066
ER -