Influences of ecological change and social networks on conservation professionals’ and producers’ risk assessments of a vegetation transition

Addressing social-ecological regime shifts necessitates a better understanding of how stakeholders view associated risks to develop socially acceptable and actionable management plans. The U.S. Great Plains are experiencing a shift from grass dominance to woody species dominance, but effective management is hampered by social and ecological factors including discrepancies in stakeholder perceptions of the shift, scale mismatch, and lack of coordination, especially in states like Nebraska where most land is privately held. Hence, we compare the risk perceptions of two major groups of actors critical to addressing regime shifts, conservation professionals and producers, as well as how different potential drivers, direct observation of ecological change or information received through their social networks, relate to their risk perceptions of the transition from grassland to woodland and forest. We find that although both groups perceive high risk associated with woody encroachment, different social and ecological factors are associated with these perceptions. Producers’ risk perceptions relate to their observation of change, with some evidence of a tree cover density threshold at which they form elevated risk perceptions. Professionals’ perceptions are likewise related to their observation of change but also associated with the proportion of producers in their social networks. This study has practical implications for targeted messaging to producers about management options at early stages of woody encroachment as well as clarifying differences between producers’ and professionals’ perceptions of woody encroachment risk to improve communication among the two groups for more coordinated management. We contribute to understandings of how social networks, ecological change, and occupation relate to stakeholders’ perceptions and related capacity to confront social-ecological systems change.