International Legal Norms and the Preservation of Peace, 1820-1964: Some Evidence and Bivariate Relationships

The purpose of this study is to determine whether changes in international legal norms have historically been associated with changes in the frequency of war, uses of force short of war, and arbitral activity among major powers. International legal norms are conceptualized as quasi-authoritative statements that communicate the prevailing attitudes held by members of the state system regarding the acceptability of certain types of behavior. The results from a time-series regression analysis of data collected under the auspices of Correlates of War and Transnational Rules Indicators Projects indicate that while there is a substantial positive association between the importance attributed by these norms to arbitration and the frequency with which major powers arbitrate their disputes, there is only a weak association between norms regulating dispute settlement through self-help and the frequency with which major powers resort to war and uses of force short of war.