Long Cycles and Internationalized Civil War

Recently many theorists have become intrigued with the possibility that several processes within the modern world system are cyclical and unfold through a series of distinct phases. In particular, the so-called “world leadership” school of thought emphasizes long cycles of capability concentration/deconcentration, while the “capitalist world-economy” school stresses long cycles in economic hegemony/rivalry. The questions asked by this study are: (1) Do civil wars become internationalized more frequently during certain phases of these cycles? and (2) Do certain types of interventions occur during those phases characterized by the existence of a single preponderant state at the apex of the international hierarchy? An analysis of data from the 1816–1980 time span indicates that civil wars do not become internationalized during just one specific cyclical phase, though phases characterized by the existence of a preponderant state are highly intervention-prone. Furthermore, such interventions tend to be undertaken by the preponderant state in support of incumbent governments. These findings are compared to predictions derived from the world leadership and world-economy schools. The explanatory power of each school is assessed, and the implications of their strengths and weaknesses for theory-building are explored.