Model sensitivity analysis in environmental emergency management: a case study in oil spill modeling

William Lehr, Donna Calhoun, Robert Jones, Andrzej Lewandowski, Roy Overstreet

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review

14 Scopus citations

Abstract

When simulation models are used as decision support systems in environmental emergency response, it is important to know the confidence of simulation results generated by a model. The Hazardous Material Response and Division (HAZMAT) at NOAA uses the oil weathering software package named Automated Data Inquiry for Oil Spills (ADIOS) to investigate the oil weathering process. This model combines a database of physical and chemical properties of oils, with a simulation model computing mass losses, density, viscosity, and water content of an oil spill due to evaporation, dispersion, and emulsification. The sensitivity analysis of the ADIOS model with respect to environmental conditions and oil physical parameters is discussed in the paper. To perform the sensitivity analysis, the Object-Oriented Modeling System was used, together with the Sensitivity Analysis Laboratory, both being developed at NOAA. The preliminary results of sensitivity analysis of evaporation process are presented in the paper. According to these preliminary results it is expected that it will be possible to provide the taxonomy of oils with respect to the reliability of results generated by the ADIOS model. Sensitivity analysis of the complete ADIOS model is in progress.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1198-1205
Number of pages8
JournalWinter Simulation Conference Proceedings
StatePublished - 1994
EventProceedings of the 1994 Winter Simulation Conference - Buena Vista, FL, USA
Duration: 11 Dec 199414 Dec 1994

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